In a research note analyzing fourth-quarter earnings, senior U.S. economist Ronnie Walker noted that discussions surrounding AI completely overshadowed what was fundamentally a strong quarter, with core corporate revenues (excluding the energy sector) growing by a robust 4.6% year over year. Amid this market fervor, Walker wrote, “We still do not find a meaningful relationship between productivity and AI adoption at the economy-wide level.” However, the data reveals a substantial hint of something bigger to come: a median reported productivity gain of around 30% for two specific, localized use cases.
In 2002, a team of researchers from NASA, the F.A.A., and six commercial airlines ran a series of experiments in Oklahoma City, in a decommissioned Boeing 747. They wanted to see how quickly a commercial jet could be secured in case of turbulence. They recruited a group of volunteer passengers, gave them all fake boarding passes and luggage, and had three of them carry around life-size baby dolls. Some of the volunteers were told to stay in their seats and act as if they were sleeping, reading, or working on a laptop. Others were told to stand in the aisles or sit in the lavatories. A crew of experienced flight attendants, drawn from the airlines participating in the study, made their way up and down the plane, serving fake food.
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